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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.