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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|