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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.